Can anyone besides Trump and Biden still win the Presidency?

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Neck and Neck Race Reflects Unpredictable Electoral Landscape

The national opinion polls have shown a significant shift recently. For several months, Donald Trump has maintained a lead over Joe Biden in these polls. However, current data from websites that aggregate various national polls, such as FiveThirtyEight, indicate that Donald Trump and Joe Biden are now neck and neck, each securing roughly 40.5% support. Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, holds about 9% support.

This neck and neck race suggests that Joe Biden has managed to close the gap. Some observers attribute this shift to Donald Trump’s conviction in the New York trial, although this is still subject to debate. In terms of election odds, Donald Trump remains a slight favourite over Joe Biden, with odds of approximately 52% to 48%. This makes sense when considering the electoral landscape of the United States, where a few swing states play a crucial role in determining the election outcome. In these key states, Donald Trump leads in nearly all of them, albeit with relatively narrow margins.

Dwindling Chances for a Third-party Upset

As the election approaches, the actual voting results in November could swing in any direction. Notably, last week, there was a considerable probability that neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden might end up as the president. This was interpreted not as a sign of support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but rather the possibility that the Democrats might replace Joe Biden, deeming him too old for another term.

However, those odds have significantly decreased. The consensus among those following the odds-making sites now is that the likelihood of anyone other than Donald Trump or Joe Biden winning the presidency has become very small.

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