Does Biden Still Stand A Chance With Trump Leading In The Polls?

Table of Contents

Betting Shifts Signal Trump’s Rising Chances

Previously, I pointed out that Joe Biden is doing very badly in the polls, and it was sort of strange that the election odds—and the one I look at the most is electionfuturespredicted.org—was still showing Joe Biden as a very tiny favourite to win the election. Or it was at least a toss-up. In the middle of May, finally, the people are making their wagers. On the predictIt.org website, they have finally started shifting their view that Donald Trump is going to win. So it’s now much more in line with the polls.

They said that the odds of Donald Trump becoming the president are about 52% or 53% right now, and the odds of Joe Biden becoming president again—actually being re-elected—is much lower than that. So that’s sort of dovetailing with what the polls are showing. Some of the polls are really remarkable, like states that Joe Biden won last time, like Nevada; Donald Trump is shown as having a double-digit lead in that state. If you look for an explanation, it’s basically Latino voters seem to be willing to vote for Donald Trump, which went for Joe Biden. Many of them are switching in this election and will switch to vote for Trump. Things can change between now and November, but that’s where it stands right now.

Jury Deliberation: What’s next for Trump?

Both Donald Trump’s lawyers and the prosecution finished making their final speeches to the jury today or yesterday. I should say today or later today. The judge will give the instructions to the jury, and then they will deliberate and come up with their verdict.

A lot of people are very confused about what Donald Trump is being accused of because this is always referred to as the hush money trial. Donald Trump did not commit a crime by paying the porn star, Stormy Daniels, to keep her mouth shut about their fling that they had prior to the 2016 election. That is not a crime. Donald Trump is being accused of accounting for those payments wrongfully. In New York, if you have a company and you wilfully misrepresent things in the books, that is a misdemeanour offense. That’s kind of what Donald Trump is being accused of: bad accounting.

The problem for the prosecutor is that it’s such a minor crime, although Donald Trump is being charged with 34 counts of bad accounting. It is such a minor crime that it comes with a two-year statute of limitations. Since these crimes occurred in 2016, he really can’t be sentenced for breaking those rules. So, in order to make the crime more serious—a felony—they had to link it to something else. In this particular case, they linked it to election fraud.

So basically, what they’re saying is Donald Trump paid Stormy Daniels to keep her mouth shut about their fling. Then he did accounting fraud in order to further keep things secret, and somehow by keeping this thing secret and out of the press, that represented election fraud, not according to U.S federal law, where most of you know, where maybe it could happen. But according to New York state election laws, it’s a very convoluted case, and it’s hard to believe that you would get 12 jurors to convict Donald Trump. For that, Donald Trump is not very popular in New York, even though that’s where he came from. So I guess it’s possible. But my expectation is the jury will say, yes, Donald Trump did bad accounting. He wilfully misrepresented the payments made to Stormy Daniels as legal expenses when they were indeed, in fact, hush money payments. But this didn’t represent election fraud. So the jury would find him guilty of the accounting problem, which is way beyond the statute of limitations. So the whole thing just ends there.

Donald Trump doesn’t have to worry about being sentenced to anything. That’s kind of my belief of what’s going to happen. But it is possible the jury will convict. I do not think it’s very likely that he’ll get a clean acquittal. So it could be a hung jury.


Jury Deliberation: What’s next for Trump?
Both Donald Trump’s lawyers and the prosecution finished making their final speeches to the
jury today or yesterday. I should say today or later today. The judge will give the instructions
to the jury, and then they will deliberate and come up with their verdict.

A lot of people are very confused about what Donald Trump is being accused of because
this is always referred to as the hush money trial. Donald Trump did not commit a crime by
paying the porn star, Stormy Daniels, to keep her mouth shut about their fling that they had
prior to the 2016 election. That is not a crime. Donald Trump is being accused of accounting
for those payments wrongfully. In New York, if you have a company and you wilfully
misrepresent things in the books, that is a misdemeanour offense. That’s kind of what
Donald Trump is being accused of: bad accounting.

The problem for the prosecutor is that it’s such a minor crime, although Donald Trump is
being charged with 34 counts of bad accounting. It is such a minor crime that it comes with a
two-year statute of limitations. Since these crimes occurred in 2016, he really can’t be
sentenced for breaking those rules. So, in order to make the crime more serious—a
felony—they had to link it to something else. In this particular case, they linked it to election
fraud.

So basically, what they’re saying is Donald Trump paid Stormy Daniels to keep her mouth
shut about their fling. Then he did accounting fraud in order to further keep things secret,
and somehow by keeping this thing secret and out of the press, that represented election
fraud, not according to U.S federal law, where most of you know, where maybe it could
happen. But according to New York state election laws, it’s a very convoluted case, and it’s
hard to believe that you would get 12 jurors to convict Donald Trump. For that, Donald
Trump is not very popular in New York, even though that’s where he came from. So I guess
it’s possible. But my expectation is the jury will say, yes, Donald Trump did bad accounting.
He wilfully misrepresented the payments made to Stormy Daniels as legal expenses when

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