What happens if there’s a TIE between Trump and Biden?

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Election Rollercoaster – Trump ahead in Polls, Biden holds Favourable Odds

Over the last several weeks, it has been pointed out that Donald Trump is leading in most of the opinion polls, not only the national polls, where they look at people nationally, but also the state polls, which show how he’s doing in individual states. This pointed to a Trump victory.

However, the sites that figure the election odds, meaning those where people try to determine the probability of Joe Biden winning versus the probability of Donald Trump winning, indicated that the election was essentially a toss-up. These odds gave Joe Biden a slightly better chance than what might be inferred from the polls.

Recently, the first national poll in a long time showed Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump. A poll from Morning Consult indicated that Joe Biden had 44% support, while Donald Trump had 43%. For those wondering about the remaining 13%, 5% were undecided and 7% indicated they would vote for another candidate.

This suggests that the odds sites were likely correct in viewing Donald Trump’s lead in the polls as less durable, with Joe Biden closing the gap. Nonetheless, current opinion polls and election odd websites still depict the election as a toss-up, without suggesting that Joe Biden is likely to win.

Evolving Demographics and Changing Voter Preference

In examining individual states, the U.S. elects its president through a complicated system involving the Electoral College. The Electoral College comprises 538 electoral votes, allocated based on state populations. For example, California has many electoral votes, while a small state like Rhode Island has only a few.

Today, Electoral College maps show several states as likely Donald Trump victories and others as likely Joe Biden victories. There are six states considered toss-ups. In the last election, Joe Biden won all six of these toss-up states, which was crucial for his victory over Donald Trump. However, his margins of victory in these states were narrow, so any shift towards Donald Trump in these states could lead to a Trump victory.

Currently, Donald Trump is performing better among younger voters compared to four years ago, though Joe Biden is still expected to receive the majority of their votes. Joe Biden’s support is eroding somewhat among younger voters and minority voters, including African-Americans and Hispanics, which is a weakness for Joe Biden.

In swing states with larger minority populations such as Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, Donald Trump now seems more likely to win, though they remain classified as swing states. Conversely, Joe Biden’s lead appears more stable in swing states with smaller minority populations and older demographics, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Electoral Deadlock: Potential for a Tied Outcome in this Year’s Election

If the election were held today and each candidate won the states they are expected to win, with Donald Trump taking Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, and Joe Biden winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Joe Biden would secure exactly 270 electoral votes, the minimum needed to be elected president. This narrow margin highlights the toss-up nature of the election, where any small change could alter the outcome.

The potential for a tie at 269 electoral votes each is also being considered by election odds sites. If a tie occurred, the U.S. Constitution mandates that the election would be decided by the U.S. House of Representatives, something that hasn’t happened since 1824. Given that the House currently has more Republicans than Democrats, it is likely that a tie would favour Donald Trump.

In the event of a tie, the House would determine the president, while the Senate would determine the vice president. This rare scenario could result in a president from one party and a vice president from another, which hasn’t occurred since 1800.


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