What Happens Next After Trump Being Found Guilty of a Felony

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Following his felony conviction, Trump is likely to receive probation. This is a typical sentence in New York for individuals over 70 with no prior criminal history, especially for the class of felony of which Trump has been convicted. The recommended fine is $4,000. Despite the crime being classified as a felony, it is not considered to be a particularly serious offense.

Trump’s behaviour during the trial was contentious. He was cited for contempt ten times and, after the conviction, referred to the judge as a “disgrace,” showing a clear lack of contrition. This could lead the judge to impose a more severe sentence, such as home confinement or an ankle bracelet, though jail time remains highly unlikely. Trump will appeal the conviction, but the judge’s careful rulings and jury instructions suggest that both the conviction and sentence are likely to stand.

Despite the felony conviction, Trump will remain the Republican nominee for President, as U.S. law does not prevent a convicted felon from running for the presidency. Polling indicates that a felony conviction could deter some Trump supporters from voting for him, potentially shifting the election in favour of Biden. Following the conviction, Biden’s odds on the Predictit.org website increased to 50% (up 5 points), making the race potentially very close. Previously, Trump was leading in the election futures market.

In reaction to the conviction, Trump’s supporters have been actively donating to his campaign. WinRed, the payment processor for Republican campaign donations, crashed due to the high volume of contributions immediately following the verdict. According to the New York Times, this was attributed to the surge in donations.

Recent polls depict a challenging situation for Biden. A recent poll in Virginia, a state Biden won by ten points in the last election, shows a dead heat. This suggests that if Biden struggles in traditionally blue states, Trump might achieve a landslide victory. In states with upcoming Senate elections, Biden is polling below Democratic Senate candidates, highlighting his personal unpopularity rather than that of his party. If the Democrats were to nominate a different candidate, they could potentially defeat Trump, but this does not seem to be their current plan.

The Democratic National Committee announced that it would nominate President Joe Biden through a “virtual roll call” vote. Officially, this is to ensure Biden’s name appears on the Ohio ballot in time. However, it may also reflect concerns over potential demonstrations against Biden by convention delegates opposing his Gaza policies. There are 20 to 30 uncommitted delegates advocating for an end to aid to Israel unless there is an immediate ceasefire.

During fundraisers, Trump has been promising tax cuts. Given the U.S. already faces large deficits, these promises will be challenging to fulfill. Additional tax cuts could lead to higher U.S. interest rates. While Trump’s conviction is historic, its direct impact on his political prospects and the upcoming election remains uncertain. It is possible that the conviction will not have a lasting impact on his election prospects.  In the coming weeks, new polling data will give us a clearer understanding of the impact of the conviction on the election.

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