Will the Democrats decide to Replace Biden in the Upcoming 2024 U.S. Election?

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Next week, on Thursday, June 27th, the first U.S. presidential debate will take place. There is a scenario where that debate could be market-moving. Most people won’t be tuning in to hear the two candidates’ views on various issues. Instead, they will be watching to see whether Joe Biden seems to have all his faculties, whether he appears senile, or whether he is in command enough to continue as President of the United States.

Of course, this issue has been around for a while, but it has recently gathered more attention because of three recent events. Joe Biden seemed out of it, at least for a moment, when he wandered off during the D-Day commemoration in France. He also seemed a bit out of it when meeting with world leaders at the G7 meeting in Italy and most recently at a fundraiser in California, where he seemed to kind of freeze up and had to be led off the stage by former President Barack Obama.

In light of these recent events, Biden’s debate performance could unfold in three possible scenarios: he could shine, deliver a mediocre performance, or struggle significantly, potentially leading to a call for change.

Scenario 1: Biden’s Shines Bright

Joe Biden has an advantage in the debate, or at least it will be less difficult for him than traveling overseas for the G7 or to California for a whole campaign event. He will be able to rest prior to the debate, have a good meal, and likely be given shots of vitamins or something to keep him going. In all probability, he will be able to more or less perform during the debate.

If he performs well, it will help him in his election against Donald Trump. Will there be any market reaction to that? No, it is not likely. Wall Street, as opposed to the market, definitely prefers Donald Trump this time. Four years ago, they were probably evenly split or preferred Joe Biden. Eight years ago, they definitely preferred Hillary Clinton. But this time, Wall Street people definitely prefer Donald Trump. So, if anything, a strong performance by Biden would be a slight negative for the market. If Joe Biden does really well in the debate, it is not particularly likely to have a significant impact, but it would be a little bit of a negative for the market.

Scenario 2: Biden’s Mediocrity

The second scenario would be if Joe Biden doesn’t seem too bad but puts in a pretty mediocre performance where Donald Trump clearly looks more presidential. In this case, Wall Street definitely prefers Donald Trump. So, maybe it’s modestly bullish. However, the market is at an all-time high under Joe Biden, so it can’t be that bad if he continues on.

Scenario 3: Biden’s Struggles and the Call for Change

The third scenario would be where Joe Biden does have a freeze-up. He comes across as not capable of remaining President of the United States. This scenario could be very bullish because the majority of the country might prefer someone other than Donald Trump or Joe Biden on the ballot. Although it is very late in the process, it is not too late for the Democrats to decide to switch out Joe Biden.

In this scenario, Joe Biden does very badly, and party leadership would need to pressure him to say, “I’m too old. It’s better off having someone to replace me.” They can’t actually force him to do it. Joe Biden has already, through the primaries and caucuses, won enough delegates to secure the Democratic nomination. But if they can convince him, they can replace him.

Do they have the ability to choose his replacement? Does Kamala Harris become the replacement? No. The replacement would be chosen at the August 17th convention of the Democratic Party when all the delegates gather. It would be a very chaotic process to choose his replacement because a bunch of people who were chosen to attend the convention to vote for Joe Biden would now be asked to choose who his replacement is. However, hopefully, Joe Biden would be able to influence his supporters to support someone of his own choosing, someone more likely to beat Donald Trump, and someone relatively popular with the American people.

Why is this bullish? A recent poll showed that 25% of Americans really dislike both candidates. This has never been that high before in an election. Any new candidate who appears could be seen as a knight in shining armour, someone who could potentially unite the country. This would be bullish. In terms of Wall Street, particularly the financial firms based there (as opposed to the market), while they currently support Donald Trump, they would be happy with someone else. They’ve never really been comfortable with Donald Trump. They definitely do not like Joe Biden because many of his policies have been bad for Wall Street. As a result, they would be very happy with someone else coming in.

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